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Here’s stark warning in a new report from a group of actuaries: the global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090.

That is if immediate policy actions on risks posed by climate change are not taken.

The report, “,” is the fourth report from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, which was produced in collaboration with climate scientists.

“Increasingly severe climate and nature driven impacts are highly likely, including fires, floods, heat and droughts,” the IFoA report states. “This is a national security issue as food, water and heat stresses will impact populations. If unchecked then mass mortality, involuntary mass migration events and severe GDP contraction are likely.”

The report’s policy recommendations include:

• Implementing annual Planetary Solvency risk assessments, leveraging the RESILIENCE principles, reporting to the UN Security Council.
• Creating a function with responsibility for producing Planetary Solvency assessments, housed in a body such as the IMF or OECD.
• Considering systemic risk officers at supra-national, national and sub-national levels to improve systemic risk management capability.
• Rapidly implementing policy recommendations to reduce risk.
• Developing tracking of delivery of solutions to mitigate risk.

World Economic Forum

Environmental risks dominate the 10-year horizon of concerns, led by extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, according to a report out this week from the World Economic Forum.

The keys in on conflict, the environment and disinformation as the top threats. The report lists the top 10 risks selected by respondents, which include more than 900 global risks experts, policymakers and industry leaders. State-based armed conflict, extreme weather events and geoeconomic confrontation are the top three risks listed.

The report highlights a sense of “declining optimism” from those polled.

“As we enter 2025, the global outlook is increasingly fractured across geopolitical, environmental, societal, economic and technological domains,” the report states. “Over the last year we have witnessed the expansion and escalation of conflicts, a multitude of extreme weather events amplified by climate change, widespread societal and political polarization, and continued technological advancements accelerating the spread of false or misleading information.”

The risks associated with extreme weather events are a concern for the year ahead, with 14% of respondents selecting that risk.

“The burden of climate change is becoming more evident every year, as pollution from continued use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather events,” the report states. “Heatwaves across parts of Asia; flooding in Brazil, Indonesia and parts of Europe; wildfires in Canada; and hurricanes Helene and Milton in the United States are just some recent examples of such events.”

NYC Suit

A New York City lawsuit that sought to hold Exxon Mobil, BP and Shell liable for misleading the public about their products was shot down by a state high court judge.

New York Supreme Court Justice Anar Patel said the city could not claim its climate-conscious residents were sensitive to how fossil fuels cause climate change, only to then be duped by the oil companies’ failure to disclose how their fossil fuel products contributed to it, according to a Reuters article on 潘金莲传媒映画 Journal.

The suit also challenged the companies’ commitment to renewable energy and fighting climate change. The city had argued that the companies falsely portrayed themselves as climate change leaders despite making minimal investments in clean energy.

Patel said she found no proof the oil companies conducted what’s known as “greenwashing,” a practice in which organizations are said to publicly embellish their environmental achievements, to boost sales of fossil fuel products in the city.

Nicholas Paolucci, a spokesperson for the city’s law department, told Reuters the city is reviewing its options.

“Our complaint alleged that these defendants spent millions to mislead consumers to think that they, and their products, contribute to a clean energy future,” he stated. “They do not. Companies that violate the city’s consumer protection laws should be held fully accountable. New Yorkers deserve no less.”

Wildfires

Climate change is reshaping homeowners insurance in California, as well as the rest of the nation, an NPR report asserts.

“Experts and policymakers agree: Climate change is upending the way that homes are insured in the United States. Across the country, what were once ‘once-in-a-generation’ weather catastrophes occur much more frequently,” states. “And as insurance companies contend with the sum total of these disasters, those higher costs are passed on to policyholders.”

The report points to pending fallout from the ongoing L.A. wildfires. New estimates of the total insured losses from the fires forecast numbers as high as $40 billion. There has also been questions whether the FAIR Plan, California’s insurer of last resort, has enough cash on hand to pay for its share of wildfire claims.

The fires are unlikely to have a significant long-term impact on the overall U.S. economy, but the losses could put modest pressure on the economy in the near term.

However the NPR report asserts that the effect of the fires and more extreme weather taken together will impact insurance in a way that all Americans will eventually feel.

“In many respects, California has a uniquely complicated insurance situation,” the article states. “But it’s a problem that’s happening throughout the rest of the country: The effects of climate change are coming for people’s home insurance bills.”

Past columns:

• Senate Committee Reveals Climate Change Danger to Financial System
• UCLA and NOAA: Climate Change Baked Western US Despite the Rainfall
• Report: Climate Risks Increasing 潘金莲传媒映画 Rates and Hurting CRE Returns
• Group of Scientists Say Climate Change Drove Helene Impacts
• Climate Change and Rising US 潘金莲传媒映画 Rates

Topics California Trends USA Wildfire Energy Oil Gas Pollution Climate Change